As 2024 comes to a close, both the national and global economy and society have been recording mixed trends. The latest changes on Upwork, the region’s largest platform, reflect the combined adverse impact of these factors on the supply of gig labour in Serbia.

Serbia sees its gig workforce decline. The number of Serbian freelancers active on Upwork decreased by 16.2 percent in the previous quarter.

Staying or leaving? Apart from software dev and tech and creative and multimedia, where few gig workers left the market (at 5.2 percent), most occupations saw a significant fall (ranging from 25 to 36 percent).

Experience raises the probability of staying at digital labour market. Freelancers with documented experience of platform work were far more likely to remain in the market.

Urban areas see greater contractions. Although urban gig workers left the workforce in somewhat larger numbers, 28 Serbian cities and towns were home to 84.5 percent of the country’s total workforce.

The share of women declines. Women gig workers were likelier to leave the digital labour market over the past six months, with their share in the gig workforce falling to 33.1 percent.

Average hourly rates increase. Average hourly rates rose by 5.9 percent to US$ 23.7, with the greatest increases registered in professional services (10 percent) and software dev and tech (12 percent).

According to estimates, the country’s growth will continue outpacing the region, accelerating to 4 percent in 2025 on the back of strong investment activity, which will have a positive knock-on effect on the traditional labour market. These forecasts may be affected by downside risks, including adverse climate events, geopolitical instability, instability in Serbia’s key export markets, and the lack of labour supply.

These movements have also had an indirect impact on gig work: better and more diverse opportunities in the traditional Serbian labour market may mean individuals are less likely to be active on global online work platforms. Conversely, the ongoing downturn in the tech sector suggests a possible increase in the supply of gig labour shortly, particularly in software development areas. The likely slowdown in gig activity has also been affected by global factors, with the world’s economy facing numerous challenges; the latest WIPO report notes that many indicators of science and innovation investment suggest a crisis that is either imminent or already here. This will certainly impact demand for gig worker services, as many of their employers are tech firms and innovative companies, many of which have cut their R&D budgets.

In the future, labour supply will come from countries with large labour pools that the traditional labour market is unable to absorb who have the knowledge and skills in demand globally and offer them at acceptable prices. On the other hand, given the accelerating digitalisation of business models and increasing use of technology that has been affecting all business processes, from procurement to logistics and production to sales in forceful and diverse ways, demand for freelancers will continue to grow globally and will be shaped on economic conditions and regulatory frameworks. One illustration of this emerging trend is the fact that, in 2023, cross-border freelance engagements increased by 27 percent, proving the increasing impact of globalisation but also reflecting the lack of workers and talent in markets where companies that generate demand for gig work are based.Read more ...

As global labour markets evolve, new skills are in demand. Employers are shifting focus onto sophisticated tech knowledge and ability to use advanced technologies across all occupations. This has also been shaping the supply of gig labour. Here, acquiring AI competencies is key for gig workers’ career development and their positioning in the labour market. Estimates suggest that, by 2025, 70 percent of all gig workers will be using AI for administrative tasks and 60 percent will have improved their knowledge using AI-enabled learning platforms, whilst AI tools will become an indispensable part of the creative workflow for as many as 80 percent of freelancer designers and content creators.

The latest changes on Upwork, the region’s largest platform, reflect the combined adverse impact of these factors on the supply of gig labour in Serbia. The gig workforce shrank by 18.7 percent over the past six months, continuing the consolidation of gig labour demand in the Serbian market. The trends seen in the Serbian digital work market are the expected outcome of the interplay between several factors. The unusually large increase in labour supply seen in recent years was always bound to come up against its natural limits, a process accelerated by trends in the broader Serbian labour market. The dwindling supply of workers for traditional jobs has resulted in freelancers leaving the gig workforce, enticed by both local and foreign companies. Continuing out-migration, in particular by young and skilled individuals, has heightened the impact of this issue.

Serbian gig workers on Upwork did not seem particularly interested in forging long-term business relationships with employers, with no more than 12.9 percent of the population expressing a preference for such work. The reasons behind this reluctance may be numerous but chief amongst them are the preferences of the gig workers themselves, who seek to retain their flexibility and freedom to choose jobs and working arrangements, as well as their inclination to treat gig work as only a supplementary source of income. Nevertheless, these attitudes have been evolving, if only minimally, as the share of freelancers who reported being ready to sign a traditional employment contract has increased from no more than 8 percent in late 2023 to 12.9 percent in this measurement.

Tellingly, 90 percent of those who would enter into a conventional contract report having prior experience with platform work. This is a clear, if perhaps partial, indicator of the limitations and shortcomings of platform work. The finding also suggests freelancers’ views of working arrangements have been changing, with conventional work now evidently being increasingly desirable. At the same time, these developments are a signal for companies where to seek comparative advantage in their global competition for talent, demonstrating that they ought to be doing so by offering a mix of incentives beyond the purely monetary ones that prevail in the digital labour market.

Continuing measurement of the gig population by region reveals the largest part of this population (84.5 percent) lives and works in 28 Serbian cities and towns. On the one hand, this bears out the trend towards ever greater agglomeration of online gig workers. On the other, however, this percentage has declined slightly, indicating the labour supply is more volatile in urban areas than elsewhere.

All regions have registered comparable contractions in gig workers, ranging from 14.7 percent in Vojvodina to 17.7 percent in Belgrade. Gender trends were the salient difference, with women more likely to leave the gig market in Vojvodina and Eastern and Southern Serbia than in Belgrade or Šumadija and Western Serbia.Read more ...

Overall statistics. The latest measurements showed Belgrade accounted for 40.2 percent of the total freelancer population, followed by Novi Sad at 13.4 percent, Niš at 8.6 percent, and Kragujevac at no more than 2.4 percent.

Apart from these main administrative centres, gig workers accounted for more than 1 percent of the total in another 7 cities and towns, namely Subotica, Pančevo, Kraljevo, Sombor, Čačak, Zrenjanin, and Kruševac. Sombor was a new entrant, with Jagodina dropping out of the top list.

Administrative centres and large conurbations. Data for administrative centres of NUTS2 regions bear out the assumption that gig workers are increasingly concentrated in major conurbations, which were home to 64.6 percent of all freelancers.

Trends. On average, the main administrative centres saw a dip of 1 percentage point (pp) in the share of their gig workforces in the total. In Belgrade this contraction was minimal at 0.75pp, Niš and Novi Sad registered increases, whilst in Kragujevac the share remained essentially unchanged at 2.3 percent. The latest measurement, however, found diverging trends for the urbanisation of labour, with Subotica being the only city to see the share of its gig workers grow and the remaining 23 cities and towns either registering contractions or remaining at the same level. Jagodina saw the greatest contraction as it shed more than one-third of its freelancer population. These findings confirm the supposition that urban centres, where the workforce is at its most numerous, also feature the greatest elasticity of labour supply: in times of expansion they grow at a disproportionate rate, whilst when the market consolidates they see the fastest and largest contractions in labour supply.

Gender structure and regional differences. From a gender perspective, the decrease in the number of gig workers was balanced in Belgrade and Šumadija and Western Serbia, although women were somewhat less likely to leave the market. By contrast, in Southern and Eastern Serbia and Vojvodina men were twice as prepared to abandon gig work, which heightened regional differences by gender.

The charts in this report show the distribution of gig workers by occupation according to the Online Labour Index (OLI) taxonomy developed by the Oxford Internet Institute. The six occupations covered are professional services, clerical and data entry, creative and multimedia, sales and marketing support, software dev and tech, and writing and translation.

The past six months were marked by a decline in the population across all occupations, for an overall drop of 16.2 percent. One likely reason may be the increasingly common use of AI tools, coupled with the abovementioned considerations.

Not all occupations contracted equally, as professional services and sales and marketing support were hit hardest, losing more than one-third of the freelancer population. Only software dev and tech and creative and multimedia proved more resilient, shedding no more than 5.2 percent of their workers on average. The outcome was a change in the structure of Serbia’s digital work market, where 65 out of every 100 workers are now active in software dev and tech and creative and multimedia. Read more ...

Not all occupations contracted equally. Even though all occupations declined, the downturn was not as pronounced everywhere. Two sectors contracted quite sharply, losing more than one-third of their respective workforces: this was the case with professional services, which fell by 36.9 percent, and sales and marketing, which declined by 35.9 percent. The reasons for this sudden reversal should be sought in the relatively small freelancer populations in these areas. Slightly milder yet still palpable declines were registered in writing and translation and clerical and data entry, where one-quarter of the workforce left the digital labour market. Creative and multimedia and software dev and tech have remained relatively shielded from major fluctuations, with the former declining by 5.8 percent and the latter by 4.5 percent.

Changes to the relative importance of individual occupations. Dissimilar contraction rates have altered the structure of the market. Creative and multimedia and software dev and tech – already identified in previous measurements as the most numerous occupations – emerged as the main beneficiaries accounting for as many as 65 out of every 100 Serbian gig workers. These two occupations saw their share increase by as much as 7.4pp. As the market consolidated, its quality also improved, since occupations with higher average incomes also saw the smallest contractions. The finding also bears out the fact that these two occupations hold Serbia’s most skilled workers, who have been able to cope rather effectively with global competition and changes brought about by technology, despite the downturn in demand for gig labour.

Restructuring, a salient trait of the market. The key conclusion to be drawn from these trends is that restructuring has continued as the market has declined, just as it had done in times of growth. These developments may have a lasting impact on the long-term resilience and qualitative characteristics of Serbia’s gig labour market. One positive aspect of the contraction is the shift in the structure of the market to the benefit of occupations with the highest average incomes that have also remained far more stable over time, in terms of both labour demand and supply, which may serve to anchor the market more strongly in the future.

The relative share of women in the freelancer population has been reversed, with their percentage in the total falling to 33.1 percent. Nevertheless, Serbia’s gig work market has remained moderately balanced by gender when compared to other countries and global regions.

New female entrants were more likely to leave the gig work market, so that, in the latest survey, only six out of every ten women gig workers had previous experience.Read more ...

Unequal sensitivity to market oscillations. After two back-to-back periods during which women increased their relative share in the freelancer workforce, the latest survey registered a fall of 1.9pp in this metric. The decline has nearly wiped out the increase in the relative share of women gig workers seen over the past year. This development was due to the dissimilar rates at which the two genders’ populations contracted, as the male freelancer workforce dropped by 14 percent against the more than one-fifth (21 percent) fall seen by the female gig worker population. Although the share of women in the freelancer population stood at 33.1 percent, much higher than in some other regions such as Asia (25 percent) or Africa (24 percent), it nevertheless lags significantly behind the averages for South-Eastern Europe (at 43 percent) or, even more starkly, North America (50 percent). Moreover, the results of surveys conducted over the past five years suggest the figure of about one-third has remained fairly stable, spiking only occasionally at up to 38 percent.

Who has left the market? The fall in the gig workforce has been accompanied by a similar decline in new entrants into the gig market, people without registered experience of platform work. Identical trends were identified for both men and women freelancers. Sixty out of every 100 gig workers were reported as having previous experience, whereas the remainder were competing for their first gig. There were no differences between men and women in terms of experience. Relative to the previous survey, women freelancers with no prior experience were somewhat more likely to leave the digital labour market than their male peers. Two factors may go some way towards explaining these trends. Firstly, new entrants into the gig work market find it increasingly hard to get work, including due to declining demand on Upwork, itself a reflection of broader downward trends across other digital labour marketplaces. This may be due to cuts in platforms’ marketing and advertising budgets, issues internal to the platforms, and more general adverse developments and major uncertainty seen in the tech sector and the broader economy. Secondly, longer tenure and experience seem to confer greater resilience in the digital market, including by enhancing the reputation of seasoned workers.

The contraction was unequal across occupations and genders. Women freelancers have become more numerous in clerical and data entry, as well as becoming as numerous as men in professional services. By contrast, with women in software dev and tech far more likely to leave the digital labour market and fewer new entrants being women, the differences here have grown drastic: no more than 12 out of every 100 software dev and tech freelancers are now women.

Software dev and tech was also the sole occupation that added new gig workers, doing so at a rate of 2.4 percent and further deepening the gender gap. Men freelancers in professional services were the likeliest to leave the market (at 41.4 percent), whilst women most commonly abandoned software dev and tech (at 39.3 percent). Read more ...

Gender similarities. The fairly even gender balance in professional services seen in past surveys, coupled with a sharper decline in the number of men in this occupation, has now led to there being identical numbers of men and women in this occupation. Moreover, the different pace of contraction across genders in clerical and data entry has pushed women across the halfway mark to outnumber men by 15.4 percent. Writing and translation also added men freelancers at a rate of 6.9 percent.

Gender differences. The gender structure was markedly different in the remaining three occupations, although the findings differed. Men outnumbered women by 46.9 percent in sales and marketing support, whilst the gap has remained the largest in software dev and tech, where women accounted for no more than 12 out of every 100 freelancers. A moderate but still significant difference was seen in creative and multimedia, where men outnumbered women by 90.4 percent or a factor of almost two.

Uneven pace of changes to gender structure. Contractions were uneven by gender across occupations, but men were more likely to leave the gig market except in software dev and tech. Software dev and tech was also unique in that there the share of women freelancers plummeted by as much as 39.3 percent whilst the percentage of men increased by a far more modest 3.4 percent. For that reason, the ratio showing the relationship between men and women freelancers in this occupation has risen from 4.4 to 7.5.

Women evenly distributed across occupations. Apart from creative and multimedia (at 37.7 percent), which saw an increase of as much as 7.3pp relative to the previous survey, no major differences were registered in terms of the distribution of women across occupations. Women were somewhat less likely to be active in professional services (8.7 percent) and software dev and tech (9.9 percent), whilst the share of occupations ranged from 10.1 percent (sales and marketing support) to 17.9 percent (clerical and data entry). By contrast, men were largely concentrated in software dev and tech and creative and multimedia, which together accounted for 72.3 percent of the total population, with none of the remaining four occupations registering more than an 8 percent share. This structure suggests that the women’s segment of the market would be far more resilient and contract far less in response to a potential powerful exogenous shock leading to a sudden drop in demand for some gig services.

The share of women’s income in total freelancer revenues has continued to decline, albeit modestly, with women now accounting for 23.7 percent of all gig worker earnings. This was largely the result of a major drop in women active in software dev and tech, one of the highest-paying occupations.Read more ...

Factors affecting aggregate income. Freelancer income was determined by the interplay of four factors acting in concert: the large preponderance of men over women freelancers, greater concentration of men in better paid occupations, greater inclination of women to treat gig work as a secondary source of income, and, lastly, greater than average engagement rate of women, a factor that works in the opposite direction from the remaining three.

Causes underlying the decline in women freelancer income. The latest measurement has seen the continuation of a downward trend in the share of women’s gig work earnings in aggregate freelancer income. Amongst the many potential reasons for this, the most significant ones are the general preponderance of men freelancers, greater concentration of men in better-paid occupations, and large discrepancies between men and women in the upper parts of the distribution (meaning amongst the best-paid freelancers and those generally active on platforms without interruption).

Asking hourly rates have been rising at a more rapid pace to stand at a historic high of US$23.7, 5.9 percent higher than in the previous survey.

Individual occupations exhibited dissimilar trends: clerical and data entry and sales and marketing support saw their average hourly rates decline, whilst the remaining four occupations registered increases. The fall in incomes in clerical and data entry was particularly sharp, at 19 percent, whilst professional services (at 10 percent) and software dev and tech (12 percent) experienced double-digit growth.

The gender pay gap has widened. Women were earning on average 81.3 percent of what their male peers were able to make, a significant fall relative to the previous measurement (when the figure had been 86.9 percent).

Women made (slightly) more (by the hour) in two occupations: in clerical and data entry they earned 10 cents more, and in writing and translation the difference was 80 cents. By contrast, men’s hourly rates were significantly higher in all other areas, with the difference ranging from US$1.6 per hour in creative and multimedia to a huge US$9.4 in software dev and tech.Read more ...

Growth in average hourly rates. This is the fifth consecutive measurement to register income growth, with earnings rising by 5.9 percent, the highest rate since April 2023. A mix of exogenous factors, such as inflation and the shrinking labour supply, coupled with the growing experience and skills of gig workers remaining active in the market, has driven hourly rates up. Although Serbian gig workers were able to make more than the average global hourly rate – which stood at US$21 in 2023 – the average hourly rate commanded by Serbian freelancers was lower than the prevailing global rate, which ranged from US$24.28 to US$61.78 per hour and was affected by many considerations (experience, occupation, and region). Nevertheless, differences between occupations were stark: gig workers in clerical and data entry were able to make no more than 75.5 percent of the average 2023 global hourly rate, whilst freelancers in writing and translation were also paid less than the average (earning 86 percent of the average global hourly rate).

Growth (again) exceeds contraction. In contrast to the previous measurement, where the changes were incremental, the latest survey registered much faster-paced evolution, with some hourly rates falling and others rising. Average hourly rates increased in professional services, creative and multimedia, software dev and tech, and writing and translation. This growth reached double digits in software dev and tech (12 percent) and professional services (10 percent), with a more moderate but still notable increase registered in creative and multimedia and writing and translation, where it stood at 7.3 percent. Occupations affected by declining incomes saw even greater differences: in clerical and data entry the fall amounted to a huge 19.8 percent, whilst in sales and marketing support the decline was a less pronounced but still significant 6.5 percent. Four-fifths of all freelancers have benefited from rising hourly rates, but the remaining 20 percent saw their incomes fall appreciably.

Differences between genders. In software dev and tech, the hourly rates of men and women followed dissimilar paths. One major change was the 29.3 percent fall in women’s rates when compared to those of men, as men’s hourly rates had risen by an average of 14.6 percent whilst those of women had fallen by 14.7 percent in the same period. This substantial shift had a decisive impact on the final income patterns, with men seeing an average increase of 7.7 percent and women registering much more modest growth at no more than 0.8 percent. Ultimately, these trends widened the gender pay gap: as opposed to the previous measurement, when women earned 86.9 percent of what men were able to make, this percentage has now fallen to 81.3 percent.

Similarities between genders. In the remaining five occupations, men’s and women’s hourly rates followed the same trends. However, the occupations can be grouped into two categories, with the first one seeing growth at similar rates. Here, creative and multimedia registered a 6.6 percent increase in women’s hourly rates, whilst men’s rates grew by 7.8 percent. Similarly, in writing and translation women saw their rates rise by 8.2 percent, whilst men registered a smaller increase of 6.5 percent. In professional services the difference was somewhat greater in favour of women, who saw 12.8 percent growth vs 8.7 percent for men. In the second category, the remaining two occupations – clerical and data entry and sales and marketing support – saw hourly rates fall across the board, with men seeing a more pronounced decrease of 9.8 percent vs 0.3 percent for women in sales and marketing support, and 24.6 percent vs 14 percent in clerical and data entry. The lower rates in these two occupations can be explained at least to some extent by the increasingly common use of AI tools for automation and content creation in marketing. Moreover, given on-going spending cuts and the overall scaling back of investment in development and innovation, the first budgets to be curtailed were those for activities mainly concentrated in occupations that have seen hourly rates decline. In particular, simple, repetitive data processing operations were the first to be impacted by AI, reflected in Serbia in the plummeting hourly rates in clerical and data entry.

How large are the (potential) incomes? Women gig workers were able to earn more than their male peers in only two occupations, clerical and data entry and writing and translation. In the former, assuming a woman freelancer works full time (176 hours per month), she could earn only US$20 more than a man in the same occupation, whilst in the latter case the difference is a much more tangible US$136. In all other occupations, under the same assumptions, not only could men earn more than women, but the differences were far higher. The lowest contrast was seen in creative and multimedia, where the average male freelancer could earn US$4.297, US$280 more than a female peer. The most pronounced difference was found in software dev and tech, the occupation in greatest demand and one where men greatly outnumber women. Here, a woman could expect to earn US$3.557 on average, US$1.649 less than what a man could make.

Gigmetar^TM is the first instrument that describes the geography of digital work in Serbia and the region in terms of gender, income, and most common occupations. It is a result of the efforts made by the Public Policy Research Centre (CENTAR) to shed more light on the work on online platforms.

The Public Policy Research Centre (CENTAR) is a team of innovative researchers and digital enthusiasts investigating the future of work and development of the digital economy in Serbia and South-East Europe.

Contact: gigmetar@publicpolicy.rs